Expected Value in Texas Holdem. An important concept that most winning Texas holdem players understand is expected value. The expected value is the average amount you win or lose on a situation if you were able to play the exact same situation thousands of times. It can be difficult to understand expected value on a hand. There are 1326 distinct possible combinations of two hole cards from a standard 52-card deck in hold 'em, but since suits have no relative value in this poker variant, many of these hands are identical in value before the flop.

1. Poker Expected Value Starting Hands N
2. Poker Expected Value Calculator
3. Poker Expected Value Starting Hands Meaning
4. Poker Expected Value Starting Hands Signals

If you have ever spent some time in the company of avid video poker fans, you probably have heard them discuss the expected value and the expected return of different variations of the game. Gaining a proper understanding of these two concepts is key to being a successful video poker player. This type of casino game combines luck and strategic play since players’ decisions can influence the outcome to a certain extent.

The A-K beats the 10-4o if neither hand makes a pair and even if the weaker hand makes a pair, it can still lose to a bigger pair. So the combined effect of fold equity and pot equity are what contributes to your expected value in any given poker hand. What is Expected Value (EV) in Poker? In short, expected value (EV) is the average result of a given play if it were made hundreds (or even thousands) of times. Let’s start with a non-poker example to understand its basic application, and then we’ll move on to a poker hand example.

Sometimes when one is dealt a good initial hand, the right decision is pretty much obvious. However, one cannot expect to get made hands on each deal and often there are strategy decisions to be made in order to improve your chances of winning with a specific combination of cards. This is where the concepts of expected value and expected return can come in handy as they play an important role when it comes to analysing such situations and determining the most advantageous course of action.

Expected Value in Video Poker

The expected value is important because it helps video poker players to determine which course of action will give them the highest value in the long run. The term expected value is used to denote the average return players can expect when they are dealt a specific combination of cards in a hand. In other words, the expected value represents the number of credits a given player can expect to win back per every credit they have wagered.

The great thing about video poker is that players can generate steady profits in the long run as long as the decisions they make yield positive expected value. The positive expected value is expressed as 1.0 or above while the negative expected value is below 1.0 and may cost players a good amount of money in the long term.

Calculating the Expected Value

One is not required to be a mathematician to determine what the expected value in video poker is since the calculations involved are relatively simple to perform but it would be best to demonstrate it with an example for clarity. Imagine you are playing a full-pay game of Jacks or Better where the full house pays 9 to 1 and the flush pays 6 to 1 per unit wagered.

The hand you have received on the deal is the following [2][5][6][7][8], in which there are two suitable options for you – you can either hold the [5][6][7][8] and attempt to draw to a straight or you can opt for holding the four suited cards and try to draw one more card of the same suit in an attempt to form a flush with the spades.

Now let us explore which of the two decisions will be more profitable for you. But before we proceed with this, we would remind that the five cards were dealt randomly from the shuffled deck for your original hand, which is to say the deck now contains only 47 cards you can use to complete your straight or potentially your Flush.

With hand number 1 where you are attempting a Straight draw, you will need either a 4 or a 9 (of any suit) as a replacement. There are four cards with a value of 4 and four cards with a value of 9 in the remaining deck. From this, it follows that there are eight cards that can help you win out of 47, which can be expressed like this 8:47 in a ratio form. In Jacks or Better, straights typically pay 20 units for five-credit bets. The expected value of this hand is calculated by dividing the number of cards you can win with by the overall number of remaining cards in the deck and then multiplying the result by the hand’s payout like this: 8/47 x 20 = 3.40. Therefore, the expected value of your hand is positive and stands at 3.40.

In comparison, if you attempt the Flush draw and hold the [2][5][7][8], you will need any spades-suited card to complete your flush. There are thirteen spades-suited cards in a standard deck and you are already holding four of them. This means that there are 9 cards out of the 47 remaining in the deck that can possibly help you collect a payout of 30 credits. It follows that the expected value of your flush of spades would be 9/47 x 30 = 5.74. This translates into an average return of about £5.74 as opposed to the £3.40 average return for a £5 wager the Straight can give you in the long run. The smarter decision to make would be to go for the Flush and discard the [6] because the flush offers you a higher expected value than the straight.

Novices should not be intimidated by this because there is no need to remember the expected value of all possible holds in video poker. There are plenty of strategy charts available online, which you can use since they include the expected value of the card holds, ranked from the highest to the lowest.

Expected Return in Video Poker

The expected return is the second major factor one needs to consider when playing a game of video poker. The expected return is usually expressed in terms of percentages because it reflects the game’s overall payback percentage. Thus, it is used to express what amount of all wagers made on a given game will be returned back to the players over the long run, provided they have adopted an optimal strategy.

The good news is players can easily determine whether a given video poker variation offers them the maximum expected return simply by taking a quick look at the game’s paytable. This is precisely the reason why paytables are so important when selecting which video poker game to play. Video poker variations which offer expected return that exceeds 100% are considered positive expectation games for the player and will be quite profitable over the long run. Those that offer expected return way below 100% should be avoided at all costs.

In order to determine whether a given video poker variation offers you optimal return, you need to check the game’s payouts for the Full house and the Flush, listed in the paytable. Video poker variations which offer payouts of 9 to 1 for a full house and 6 to 1 for a Flush are called 9/6 or “Full-pay” machines. When optimal strategy is at hand, such games generally offer theoretical payback percentage of around 99.54%, which is rather satisfactory for a casino game. This means that for every £100 wagered, the game would return to players £99.55 in the long run while the house will keep only £0.46 in profits.

It makes sense that you can also calculate the house edge of video poker games when you know their theoretical expected return. As you can see, you simply need to subtract the expected return from 100%, so in this case, the house edge for a full-pay 9/6 game would be only 0.46% – one of the lowest you can benefit from in a casino.

Then again, players will come across video poker variations which offer them lower payouts for the Full house and the Flush, for instance, 8/5, 7/5 or even 6/5. These variations are frequently referred to as “short payback” games and for a good reason. The adjustments in the paytable may appear minor but they have huge effect on the theoretical expected return of the games. An example would be a 8/5 Jacks or Better game where the long-term expected return drops to 97.30%. The reduction of a single unit in the payouts for full house and flush leads to an overall drop of 1.10% in the payback for each of the two bets.

Sometimes software developers may try to compensate players for the reduced payouts of the Flush and the full house by boosting the payouts on other hands but this happens on rare occasions only and such games are hard to find. Some casinos may offer increased payouts for Royal Flushes when players bet five credits. Yet, this would lead only to a slight improvement in the overall theoretical return of the game, so players are highly recommended to check the rest of the paytable to make sure no adjustments have been made to the payouts of other bets.

Calculating the Expected Return via Calculators

If calculations are not your strongest point, you do not have to worry about it. Back in the days, it may have been difficult to determine the expected return of a certain video poker variation. Nowadays, however, players can easily find calculators online and quickly get the expected return of any type of video poker game.

To be able to calculate the expected return of a specific video poker option, you will simply need to enter the payouts for each hand that the game is offering. This will allow the calculator to do the right math and show you the estimated expected return you can enjoy in the long run.

If you are comparing different video poker variations, online calculators can come in handy. You can check the expected return of different versions of a game, or juxtapose two or more variations of video poker. The calculator will allow you to see which option is the best one to play and will offer the best return at the end of the day.

Video Poker Trainers

Online players have it extremely easy due to the online calculators they can utilize when comparing video poker variations. In addition to that, they can resort to the use of the so-called trainer software. It will allow you to recreate any video poker game and see the outcome of every possible draw.

As 9/6 Jacks or Better is one of the most popular variations among video poker fans, it is the default game set up with most trainers. That said, you can easily adjust the payouts for certain hands if they and you can also pick other video poker variations.

Trainers allow players to choose between a Random Mode and a Hard Mode when they are running a video poker game through the software. When you have set up the trainer in Random Mode, you will be dealt 5 cards that are selected randomly. Then, you will need to make a decision about which cards to hold and which ones to discard.

Once you are done with your move, the trainer will show you which was the optimal move and whether you have made the right decision. In addition to that, you will be shown the expected return for the hand you are holding and the expected return for the hand you are advised to keep instead.

In Hard Mode, the trainer will offer hands that are a bit trickier and even seasoned players might have a difficult time choosing the right cards to keep. Once you are done with your decision, you will be shown the correct hand that guarantees the best possible return.

Video Poker Expected Values When Playing with a Bonus

One of the best perks of playing online is making use of promotions. Many interactive casinos offer their new members very generous Welcome Bonuses that can truly change one’s gaming experience. If you enjoy playing video poker, you should give casino bonuses a try as they can positively affect your gaming adventure.

Before you redeem any bonus, however, make sure that you have thoroughly checked the terms and conditions that apply to the specific offer. Some interactive casinos exclude video poker games from promotions or, if there are wagering requirements, video poker games have a low contribution to the bonus turnover.

Let us take for an example a scenario where you wish to use your casino bonus on a game of 9/6 Jacks or Better. If you decide to deposit 20 units and the playthrough requirements are 40x, the probability of surviving the playthrough is 19.93%. Even if the wagering requirements are much higher and you need to turn over the bonus 100 times, your probability of surviving is still pretty good with an average of 9.80%. Of course, these percentages are true if players use an optimal strategy.

The expected return for a bonus play with 20 units on 9/6 Jacks or Better is 18.49 bets after a playthrough of x40 has been met or the player has gone bust. Meanwhile, the expected return will be 17.76 bets after a 100x turnover has been completed or the player has busted before that.

If you change the game to 8/5 Bonus Poker, when you deposit 20 units and you need to meet the requirements of 40x, your probability of surviving is 16.63%. When the turnover conditions are increased to 100x, the probability drops to 8.15%. In the case of this video poker variation, the expected return after you have met the wagering requirements of 40x or you have gone bust is 17.52 bets, while a playthrough of 100x will lead to an expected return of 16.41 bets.

If you decide to use your casino bonus on a 16/10 Deuces Wild variation and you deposit 20 units, your probability of success after a playthrough of 40x is going to be 13.50%. Let us boost the wagering requirements all the way to 100x and the probability of success will decrease to 7.32%. The expected return after you meet the wagering requirements or go bust before that is 19.27 bets for a 40x playthrough and 18.97 bets for wagering requirements of 100x.

As you can see, as long as you find a decent casino bonus, you can enjoy a fruitful video poker experience online. Of course, some games are better than others and you can often take into account that video poker games tend to have a lower contribution to bonus wagering. That said, you should not be afraid of using bonuses while playing video poker online.

One of hold’em’s most crucial decisions is, do I see the flop or don’t I see the flop? In this lesson we’ll examine the importance starting hand selection and what factors you need to consider before deciding whether to hold’em or fold’em.

There are 169 different two card starting hand combinations in hold’em poker. This number assumes, for the sake of argument, that is the same as , or any other suited combination. If you are not dealt a pair, then your starting hand will either be suited or unsuited, and either connected or unconnected (gapped). This means your starting hand will fall into one of the following five categories:

• Pairs – e.g. , ,
• Suited connectors – e.g. , ,
• Connecting cards – e.g. , ,
• Suited unconnected cards – e.g. , ,
• Unconnected cards – e.g. , ,

Unconnected cards might be one, two, three-gapped, or more. The bigger the gap, the less chance you have of hitting a straight. For example, if you hold 73, then you’d need a flop of 456 for the straight. But holding T8, you could flop a straight with 9JQ or 679.

The Best Starting Hands in Hold’em

Let’s start by talking about the best starting hands, which are often referred to as ‘premium hands’. There is some disagreement amongst poker players as to which starting hands are the best, but few would dispute the value of the first of our three main groups, Aces and Kings.

Group 1: AA, KK

These two starting hands are the major players in hold’em. It’s not often you’ll get dealt Aces or Kings. In fact you get either Aces or Kings once in every 110 hands, so it’s not nearly as often as we’d like. Aces are by far the best possible starting hand in hold’em, closely followed by Kings. However, you should be aware that even Aces or Kings can get cracked, and they don’t play too well against multiple opponents. This means you should definitely be raising pre-flop to narrow the field. Extra caution is necessary when playing Kings, because if an Ace falls on the flop then you’re losing to anyone who has a single Ace in their starting hand. While they are very strong hands which most players love to get, they are certainly not unbeatable.

Group 2: QQ, JJ, AKs

Queens and Jacks are great starting hands, and with either of these, you can usually be confident you have the best starting hand. Of course they are dominated by Aces and Kings, but they’re a favourite against all other starting hands. While Queens and Jacks will occasionally run into a player holding either Aces or Kings, it doesn’t happen too often. Play these cards strongly, and always look to raise with them.

Ace-King is known throughout the poker world as Big Slick, and when suited it’s often called Super Slick. While it isn’t a ‘made hand’, unlike a pair, it offers great potential. It’s only a big underdog to Aces and Kings, and even pairs like Queens and Jacks are only slight favourites. The beauty of AK (suited or unsuited), is that it dominates so many other hands like AQ, AJ, AT, and so on. These types of hands are the ones that players usually end up pushing all-in with late in a tournament.

Group 3: TT, AK, AQs, AJs, KQs

This next group of starting hands is also a strong bunch. You should definitely be looking to raise pre-flop with any of these hands too. We’ve already talked about the power of AK, but starting hands like AQs, and AJs, are also very strong and often run into weaker Ace-X combinations. Even though these are all strong starting hands, and most of the time you’ll be winning pre-flop, you have to be careful – particularly a hand like KQs, which you can easily fold to a re-raise.

Suited Cards

You’ll often hear novice players responding to questioning of why they played a particular starting hand with the line “well, because they were suited”. Some suited cards are worth playing and it’s certainly better to start with suited cards than unsuited cards. However, the odds of flopping a flush is 1 out of 118 hands (0.8%) with two suited cards, and you’ll only make a flush after the river around 6.5% of the time. Don’t fall into the trap of playing any two cards just because they happen to be suited – it doesn’t make a big enough difference to make junk hands valuable.

Kicker Issues

The word ‘kicker’ means the smaller of your two cards. Some players play a hand if it contains an Ace with any other card (such as an Ace with a 3 kicker), and this type of play ultimately cost players money and tournaments. For example, let’s suppose a player calls with A6 and the flop comes A83. What does the player do? bet? call? raise? call a big raise? go all-in? What if the flop comes Q63? The player has middle pair – which is very hard to play. Hey, the flop could come A6X – the player has two pair, Aces and sixes but this happens only 1 out of 49 hands (2%). Until you learn when and how to play Ace junk (AX) go slow with it. One good thing about A junk and K junk, is that you do not need to play these hands to learn when they may be profitable. Let experience from other hands and study be your teacher.

Table Conditions

Hold’em starting hands can be a complex subject because every situation is different. If you were to ask a professional poker player, “should I call, raise, or fold this hand pre-flop?” his response would almost certainly be “it depends!” Here are some of the main reasons why it depends:

The Number of Players

The value of certain starting hands is very dependent upon the number of players at the table. Certain starting hands are always going to be under threat against a table of nine or ten players, but the value of these same hands increases when there are fewer players. A starting hand like KJ might be vulnerable against a full table of players, but is considered a strong hand if there are just a few other players.

Position

Your position on the poker table will be a major factor in deciding which starting hands you should play. The later your position in the betting order, the better – because you get to decide what to do after most of your opponents have acted. We’ll talk much more about the importance of position throughout our lessons on Pokerology, but as a first step please see our lesson on the value of position. Playing position can elude us at first because it is a part of poker that lends itself to be exploited through experience. However, you must quickly realize that your position at the table should heavily influence the choice of starting hands that you play. Until a player has a feel or grasp for positional play, just believe and follow some of the suggestions on the subject.

A Raised Pot

Whether or not a pot has been raised should be a very important factor in your decision to play a particular starting hand. Your selection of starting hands should change when the pot has been raised by a reasonable player. If there has been a raise and a re-raise before you’re due to act, then you should only consider playing with a very strong hand. Of course this will also depend on the personality types of the other players and whether the game is very loose or passive.

Starting Hand Charts

When you first start playing poker it can be helpful to use a starting hand chart as a point of reference. We’ve created a couple of starting hand charts that can be used by beginners. Please click on the following links to view these charts (they will open in a new window):

Each of these charts loads as a PDF, meaning they be viewed on screen, bookmarked or better still, can be printed and studied offline.

Beginners can treat starting hand charts as the gospel, but once you know enough about the game to recognize appropriate opportunities, you can deviate because your adjustment may represent a more profitable play. Our starting hand charts are a guide, not a set of intractable rules. There is no such thing as a perfect starting hand chart, because every game is different and there are many variables at work. Game texture and table conditions can’t be measured and included into a neat formula.

There are many factors that may encourage you to tighten or loosen your play from our guidelines. If you have a starting hand that’s not listed on the chart, then there’s a good reason – it should almost always be mucked. But as in all poker decisions the phrase, “It depends” comes to mind. However, before you decide to deviate from our guidelines, have a reason for taking such an action.

Conclusion

Poker Expected Value Starting Hands N

Don’t fall into the trap of playing any two cards. Most poker players want to play hands and as a beginner it’s very easy to be seduced by suited cards or picture cards, or any two-card holding that contains an Ace of a King – but if you play hold’em correctly, you’re going to be selective and toss away the vast majority of hands you’re dealt.

When you gain more poker playing experience you can begin to open up your range of starting hands – but until then, proceed with caution and only play the best hands. Loose, promiscuous play will get you into trouble and is the downfall of many players.

In future lessons we’ll expand much more on the topics discussed in this poker lesson and get you to think beyond the actual cards you’re dealt. We also have hours of video footage covering starting hand selection for both no-limit and fixed-limit hold’em – so depending upon your preference, be sure to check them out!

Poker Expected Value Calculator

By David Sasseman

David lives in Atlanta, Georgia, and has played over a million hands online and many thousands of hands in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, and Las Vegas casinos.

Poker Expected Value Starting Hands Meaning

Poker Expected Value Starting Hands Signals